The Nightmare Before Christmas - December 2021
It couldn’t get any worse… could it? WallpaperGate, PartyGate, North Shropshire by-election, CheeseandWineGate. Santa's naughty list is endless...
It couldn’t get any worse… could it? Behind all the early advent doors were scene after scene of Conservative revelry. But in the first week of December the scenes were still the product of journalists' imaginations. Questions were asked. Denials were made. Dominic Cummings hinted that it would be very unwise for Downing Street to lie about parties that may or may not have taken place when the rest of us were in lockdown or subject to various restrictions.
Then on Thursday 7th of December, ITV news broadcast the videotape to smash all denials. Inside the £2.6 million press briefing room came the scene to end careers, as former Downing Street press secretary Allegra Stratton fielded test questions about the Government’s handling of the pandemic from colleagues.
The fall out is well known as Johnson’s administration threw another woman under a big red bus with lies on the side. All the evidence points to a party having taken place in Downing Street on 18th December, when London was subject to restrictions on indoor gathering.
The cut through was immediate. Partygate eclipsed the financial labyrinth of Wallpapergate. Ant & Dec mocked Prime Minister Johnson on live TV as members of the public shared their stories of losing loved ones, on the very same day of the party, or receiving their court judgements for holding gatherings. It was now crystal clear. The rules are for us, not the people who make them.
If scandals are now priced into governments, what use is our fourth estate which is meant to expose corruption? In the UK and around the world there exists a revolving door of media and political elites which regularly fails to hold the powerful to account. Partygate was a perfect distillation of how power works in this country, which is still ruled undemocratically, by the establishment.
Allegra Stratton epitomises the situation. Formerly a journalist at the Guardian, BBC and ITV whose job was to scrutinise the government, then joined it as a propagandist. She is married to the Spectator’s political editor, James Forsyth, who was best man at the wedding of Rishi Sunak, who himself is a former employer of Stratton. This is a story of incestuous political and media elites.
When Stratton was Newsnight political editor, she humiliated a single mother on national television, seeking to portray her as a benefit “scrounger”, erasing the fact she was in full-time work and was compelled to claim housing benefit; the programme was forced to apologise on air. This example exposed how much of our media ecosystem, entangled in government, fails to hold the powerful to account, while encouraging us to be angry at the powerless and the vulnerable. No wonder they are, like Stratton in the leaked video, laughing at the rules that bound the rest of us.
The Sun newspaper failed to print a front page splash on the biggest political scandal of the year. But why? Because, the deputy editor is none other than James Slack - a revolving door veteran who was the prime minister’s official spokesman at the very time the Christmas party took place! Comedian Matt Green parodied the revolving door perfectly.
A single episode can act like a flare, lighting up the true nature of power in ways that only those who deliberately close their eyes can ignore. The ugly truth about our ruling establishment is right before us. And the consequences must go far further than our deceitful, corrupt prime minister.
The Bleak Midwinter
“It’s just one fucking thing after another, isn’t it?” confessed a cabinet minister. The government's handling of December’s Omicron wave was clearly affected by the sleaze storm engulfing Downing Street. Hardliners used Johnson’s apparent weakness to thwart health measures designed to protect lives and livelihoods. Sajid Javid, once seen as the bright hope of anti-lockdown MPs, rose to give his evening statement in the Commons to a shout of “resign” by MP William Wragg.
Conservative message discipline had now broken down. “I’m blowed if I’m ever listening to No 10 on comms strategy again,” one cabinet minister said. Instead of a scramble over Schrodinger's Christmas party, Wednesday the 8th of December was meant to bring a rallying call for booster jabs, an invitation for over-40s to book online and mark the anniversary of the first vaccine. The only senior cabinet minister forced to face press questions was foreign secretary Liz Truss, who repeated the “the government followed the rules” mantra. “Don’t underestimate how colleagues felt about that, watching Liz read the lines off her notes,” an MP said.
Instructions went out to cabinet ministers that they must join Johnson for Prime Minister’s questions. Whips hustled more mute MPs into the chamber, grim-faced behind their masks. Johnson’s “unreserved apology” was met with near silence and members of the opposition called for him to resign.
On the 9th of December came the news that the Conservative party was fined £17,800 for failures in reporting donations relating to the renovation work at 11 Downing Street. A spokesperson for the Conservative party said they were considering appealing against the ruling and dismissed the errors as a “technical breach of reporting requirements”. Some parents save the newspapers on the day of their child’s birth for posterity. Johnson, who welcomed his 7th child into the world on the 9th may select his papers carefully.
Late on Saturday the 11th of December, Pippa Crerar, Daily Mirror Political Editor, published another damming photo of Johnson and staff seemingly breaking lockdown rules to host something as needless as a Zoom quiz. The Sunday papers rounded up what most described as Johnson’s latest worst week yet. Johnson’s premiership was on the brink. The looming by-election in the supposedly safe Tory seat of North Shropshire was now on a knife edge. Only one thing could save the PM, his government and the Conservative party - total fear.
Ex-footballer and Sky pundit Gary Neville summed it up best.
The Omicron wave of Covid infections and the “Bertie Booster Programme” was clearly being used to distract from Conservative sleaze and Government failure. Next, the media turned its attention to which Tory MPs would rebel over the next raft of proposed Covid restrictions, glossing over the fact that journalists knew the measures would pass with Labour support. But for the 99 rebellious Tory MPs, it was about sending a message. Up with this, they would not put. Government policy would be decided by the rebels not the Cabinet.
After the vote, Labour leader Keir Starmer called Johnson the “worst possible leader at the worst possible time”. Asked if Tory rebels should try to get rid of the prime minister, the Labour leader replied: “The prime minister needs to ask himself the question whether he has the authority to lead this country through this pandemic.”
Since Brexit, the Tory party has thrown out its more centre-right, moderate voices. As a direct consequence, the main strain of opinion in the Conservatives is now inherently more lockdown-sceptic, freedom-loving, anti-mask than the party of David Cameron might have been. If Johnson does need to opt for stricter, plan C measures in the face of a rising tide of Omicron, he will find himself in the same position as May did over Brexit – attempting to rely on Labour votes in the face of a revolt on the right. MP and walking hedge fund Jacob Rees-Mogg, gave a clear signal to backbenchers on his podcast.. “You have to learn to live with Covid in the end. We cannot switch the economy off and on every few months. Life is about taking risk.”
The Party’s Over
In the early morning of 17th of December the results of the North Shropshire by-election were announced. The Liberal Democrats had won the former safe seat, held by Conservatives for almost 200 years. The “Westminster story” beginning with Owen Paterson had grown to this historic defeat. As the winning MP Helen Morgan aptly put it, “Boris Johnson, the party is over”.
The Lib Dem leader, Ed Davey, who was not at the count as he has tested positive for Covid, spoke to Morgan by phone directly after her speech. In a statement he called the win “a watershed moment in our politics”.
He said: “Millions of people are fed up with Boris Johnson and his failure to provide leadership throughout the pandemic and last night the voters of North Shropshire spoke for all of them. This is the second stunning byelection victory this year for the Liberal Democrats - both in formerly safe Conservative seats.”
No party could be worth the hangover Johnson must have suffered that day. Boris Johnson was on notice and could be gone within a year unless improvements were made. In an interview, the Prime Minister said he took responsibility for the loss but also blamed the media and public for focusing too much on “politics and politicians” rather than real issues. Johnson appeared reluctant to accept that his own behaviour was the cause of the historic swing against the Tories.
But December wasn’t done with Johnson yet. Brexit bulldog Lord “Frostie” Frost resigned on the 18th of December. Citing frustrations over Brexit negotiations and broader concerns over the government’s Covid policies and tax increases. Frost was mocked for walking away from the consequences of the Brexit deal that he himself had crafted.
While frustration is deep and anger is running high, Conservative MPs from all wings of the party agree that, with the Omicron variant spreading like wildfire, now is not the time to strike against Johnson. But many are beginning to fear for their own seats at the next general election, and say May will be the decisive month. One former minister said: “If there was not a pandemic, I would be writing and signing my letter now and sending it off to Graham Brady [chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers] to trigger a leadership contest. And I think most of us would do the same.”
On the 19th of December the latest ‘one rule for them’ photo completed a fortnight of bewildering shithousery. At first glance, it has all the hallmarks of a laid-back post-work social gathering on an uncommonly warm British spring evening. There are 19 people present, sitting or standing in four distinct groups, each one of which appears to have drinks. There are bottles of red wine and a cheeseboard.
The event, on Friday 15 May 2020, took place in the garden behind Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street, a mix of terrace, lawn and formal planting that is used variously for formal entertainment, domestic leisure and work. Across England, people were still banned from meeting more than one adult from another household socially – and then it had to be outdoors and at a 2-metre distance.
On the terrace in the foreground, sitting at a rectangular garden table surrounded by rattan-style chairs, Boris Johnson chats to his then fiancee, Carrie Symonds, who is cradling what appears to be the couple’s newborn son, Wilfred.
On the same table, at which a civil servant and an aide are chatting to each other, is a half-empty bottle of wine, a wine glass and a wooden board with bread and cheese.
There are two other small groups – another terrace table of four people, also with wine, and a man and a woman sitting on the grass behind them. There is also a congregation of eight men and one woman standing around an apparently bottle-laden table, also on the lawn.
Even if you did not know this was the Downing Street garden, it might be evident these are work colleagues, with most wearing formal office clothes. But the sense of the occasion, as portrayed in the photo, seems very much social.
These are, it would seem, people who had been working – in this instance, the then health secretary, Matt Hancock, had fronted a televised Covid press conference in Downing Street at 5pm – but were now winding down afterwards.
The presence of Carrie next to her partner, the prime minister, reinforces that sense. Attenders’ body language is relaxed and there are no laptops, files or notepads to take minutes on show.
Presented with the photograph, Downing Street said it showed colleagues having work meetings, which, given the hours involved, sometimes included drinks, and were not against the then regulations.
The event took place amid the first lockdown, at which point specific rules against workplace socialising had yet to be set out – but only because people were only supposed to be in work if absolutely necessary.
Downing Street staff were permitted to do this, as key workers, but the guidelines on in-person meetings were very clear: these should only take place if absolutely necessary, and then with everyone distanced at least 2 metres. That is very much not happening in the photograph.
Ultimately, it will come down to the watching public looking at the photograph, reading the No 10 explanation, and being asked to accept that this was purely a work event. For many, this could feel like quite a leap of faith.
Succession
There are three spectres haunting Boris Johnson as the prime minister spends a tense Christmas monitoring hospitalisation data in order to make a call on whether or not to cancel New Year’s Eve celebrations and place new restrictions on the country from January.
Cabinet Office sources have suggested there will now be no update before Christmas to the potential reopening of an investigation by Lord Geidt, the adviser on ministerial standards, into Johnson’s flat redecoration.
That will make it a hat-trick of potentially serious censures awaiting Johnson in the new year – firstly from Geidt, who is said to be considering his position, as well as from Sue Gray, the senior civil servant investigating Downing Street lockdown gatherings.
The third and potentially most serious is one by the parliamentary standards commissioner Kathryn Stone into Johnson’s donations to cover the refurbishment of his residence.
Worse than all these is the Opinium survey which found that Boris Johnson is “a significant drag on Tory fortunes”, according to a poll that tested the Conservative party’s chances at the next election with different leaders at the helm. The current chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has a much better chance of challenging Keir Starmer’s Labour than the incumbent prime minister, according to the poll by Opinium.
The poor personal polling for Johnson, was compounded by a poll commissioned by the Sunday Times showing Labour surging to an eight-point lead over the Tories, comes after a torrid period of sleaze scandals for Johnson and his party.
The Owen Paterson lobbying scandal that ultimately led to the Tories losing a seat they had held for 200 years at a byelection, the refurbishment of the prime minister’s Downing Street flat and various claims of lockdown parties in Whitehall and No 10 have all damaged Johnson and the Conservatives’ reputation, against a backdrop of surging Covid cases and the prospect of more restrictions nearly two years into the pandemic.
On a personal note, I spent Christmas self-isolating after testing positive for Covid - most likely with the Omicron variant. Various family plans were ruined but I was lucky enough to celebrate Christmas quietly with my significant other. So I want to wish good health to you and yours for 2022. I hope you have enjoyed these monthly newsletters. They may be an indirect route of introducing the concept of Direct Democracy to UK citizens, but every month, as I catalogue the litany of failures and corruption of our politicians, I remain convinced that this work is just and very sorely needed.